Day Trading with Dani B

Reading the Tape | S&P 500 Weekly Breakdown May 15, 2026

β€’ Danis Bailey β€’ Season 1

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0:00 | 16:27

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The S&P 500 closed the week in bullish territory despite a Friday selloff that wiped 1.24% off the index, pulling it back to 7,408. This week we break down what actually drove price β€” from the US-China trade optimism that fueled Monday's momentum, to the CPI and PPI data mid-week that gave bulls the confirmation they needed, to Friday's tech-led distribution as smart money rotated out of extended semis positions.

We cover the key levels that held, where institutional flow was concentrated, how Treasury yields complicated the Fed narrative heading into next week, and what the price action is telling us about the broader trend structure going into late May.

If you trade the S&P β€” this is your weekly debrief. No fluff, no predictions dressed as analysis. Just the tape, the data, and what it means for your positioning next week.

πŸ“Š Topics covered: SPX price structure | CPI & PPI reaction | Tech rotation | Treasury yield pressure | Key levels to watch | Macro setup for next week

Lofi Music Created By Danis Bailey

Lofi Trading Music Created By Danis Bailey

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Hey guys, what's up? It is Day Trading with Danny, and it's your host, Dennis Bailey, coming to you with a little bit of info about the SP 500. So this is gonna be a day trading with Danny recap. I'm gonna talk about why I like trading the SP 500, whether it's ES1, SPY, or SPX, how I was introduced to it, and why I am devoted to her. She's my my baby, and then my runner up is NASDAQ, right? So when I first started trading futures, the brokerage that I had, you know, had it you could trade, you know, all of the indices, right? But I noticed that the SP 5, like the contract, I hate to say it like this, but I could afford that contract, right? So the micro mini was only like $70 for me to trade, and I was like, yeah, okay, so I wanted to trade that one. NASDAQ was a lot more expensive. I want to say Dow Jones was uh more expensive too, and so was the Russell, okay. So I got you know, my experience with understanding or looking at the SP back last year, okay, uh, when I started trading futures. Now I started trading long before futures, but when I started trading futures, that's what was available to me. So I've been, you know, watching ES a lot more come from actually studying company tickers into really hyper-focusing on indices and applying the knowledge that I have for that. Okay, so that's where my love for uh ES comes from. All right, and today we're going to cover what happened this past week and just really just doing a technical analysis of it, okay? For specifically the SP. Okay. So what I like to do when I am trading is I like to look at higher time frames. Like, I'm not really pressed to see those lower time frames when I am trying to like gauge what could possibly happen. We had um unprecedented movement towards all-time highs on the SP, which was amazing. But I can't help but notice that on the monthly we left a nice little uh fair value gap behind here, um, ranging from 69. Let's see, I want to make sure because I'm literally at my computers, I'm speaking, from 6910 up to 7200. Okay. So inside of this fair value gap, there were orders that were left behind that were never picked up. One thing about the market though is for the most part, sometimes I have to really stress that. Sometimes we go back and we grab those orders, sometimes we don't. You want to be aware that those fair value gaps exist. So, in the event if the market is falling and it starts to fall from where you are, and we get to a certain level and it kind of like rejects and it hits a sharp U-turn. The reason being are these orders, these limit orders that are waiting. These people who are invested in the price coming down into this area before they either put purchase their call or purchase their sell order. Okay, so that's what a fair value gap is. In case you didn't understand, it's an imbalancement. It is where price moves so rapidly, it left both buyers and sellers behind in a particular area. All right. And so, with that being said, I noticed um on the monthly for ES, and it if it exists on the ticker for ES, it surely exists for SPY and SPX and XSP. Okay, so on the monthly from March to April to May, we did create a fair value gap. Then I'm looking here, and uh we have another fair value gap from July of 25 that we never came back down to into May of 25. That's kind of steep to go back into these levels, but it's good to market, okay? It is very good to market out on your chart so you know what's up if, like I said, in the event that we start to fall, okay? In the event that we start to fall, so that other fair value gap that goes into last year, the top of it is 6230, the midpoint is 6,116, and then the lower part is 6,000. So even though we're sitting at 7432, we could find support at 6,000, we could find support at 6118, 6232, 6911. Uh, what's this on here? 7055 or 7200. There are six different areas that if we were to tumble a little bit, we could hit a sharp rejection. It is important for you to outline these with the box tool on Trading View or whatever the case is and mark those and understand where they sit. Okay. So let's talk about the monthly time frame. I'm just taking a look at ES here. I'm gonna apply the fibs. And on the monthly time frame, we were bullish and you know, we made it all the way up to 75, like 7,541 and 25 cent, and we started to push back down, and now we're at 7432 and 25 cent. Okay, so we are now back uh below the 78%, okay? So with that being said, uh that's not a cause for concern on the monthly just yet, but what we will do is mark out the 50% of the month right now, like our current month for May. And if we fall back under 7,372, ring the alarm, okay? Like, hmm, because under the 50%, we cross over into bearish territory on the fibs. All right, so there's our monthly disposition and level that we really want to pay attention to. So now I'm gonna take that and I'm gonna label it monthly 50. Perfect. Now I'm gonna go down to the weekly, all right. So when I apply the fib to the weekly, we've been bullish now for one, two, three, four, five, six, seven weeks. I love it because we just came out of a slump for one, two, three, four, five weeks. Okay, five weeks we were in bearish territory, and we kept toppling, you know, to the downside. And every time our weeks would have this full body candle, by the end of the week, we were we were dojys, like every single week we were a doji to the it's like okay, and then we hit this pivotal point here in March, and then we moved up. Of course, there's catalysts and economic data and things like that that changed the disposition as for why we've now had this this cute little run here for seven weeks. So I say seven, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. We're hitting a cause for concern for me. It doesn't really mean anything, but it's also something that we need to pay attention to. So when I take and I apply the fib to the weekly levels here, okay, our current week literally rejected at the 50% of the month. Okay, it rejected at the 50% of the month, and we bounced up, okay, and we moved upwards, and I just I can't help but notice that we started to fall back down, okay, on the weekly. So we were all the way up at 7,540 on the ES, and now we're back down to 7,433, putting us just at the 38% of the Fibonacci levels, just that, which means we've fallen underneath the weekly 50%. We're in a very interesting territory. We also created a doji on the week, okay? So that's very, very important. So what I'm gonna do now is mark the 50% of this week, okay? And I'm gonna say previous PW 50%. We got the monthly, the current month 50, and now we have the previous week 50. So what I'm looking at coming into this next week here, and I'm also gonna mark the high of the week, too. So we'll say weekly high here. All of this stuff is very important. Weekly high. All right, that's where we reject it from at 7540. So coming into this next week, I want to see how we're going to react to 7,372 and 25 cents. That's what I would like to see, like in that range. Actually, let me see. Yeah, yep, exactly what I just said. So I want to see how we're gonna react to that. Are we gonna find support there again and bounce off of it? Or are we going to push through with momentum and come back down into this ripster cloud? If we come back into the ripster cloud, we conveniently land in the area where we had the fair value gap and the orders left behind. So if we come back through the monthly 50%, which is 7,372, and we come through with momentum, okay, on the next week, we could find support here yet again at 77,200 on ES. Okay. We could find support there, or we could test it and then continue to push through, come down to the 50% of this fair value gap to 7,056. Uh, we could bounce here and push back up, or we could push through and then head down towards 6909. Okay. So what I'm doing right now as I'm talking to you is I'm looking at higher time frames weekly and monthly. I am marking those off, okay? And I'm executing my futures trade, my SPX or my SPIS based off of this information. Are we gonna find support at the monthly 50? Are we gonna find support or resistance at the uh previous week 50? Well, we're beneath it, so we could find resistance, right? Are we going to go back up and retest the weekly high and then fall? What is going to happen? Now, the most important thing about doing technical analysis and chart breakdowns is you don't need to have a disposition, you need to follow what the chart is telling you. You need to utilize your risk management tools and execute your trades efficiently, and that's all you need to do. So just because I see this doji here on the weekly with ES, it means absolutely nothing because I'm going to follow what the charts are showing me. We have been like, I'm gonna be honest with you, the market, I call it DGen behavior. Like this run up during war and uncertainty, etc., is is just like, huh? You know, I can see a little consolidation, I can see a little pop here or there, but we have gone up exponentially here in in these weeks and months, and it's like that it's just kind of odd behavior, right? And so I don't want to sit here and be like, yeah, doom and gloom. We're going back down into the fear value guy. We're gonna fall all the way down to uh 6800. We're gonna like, no, I'm gonna mark these levels. I am going to be cognizant of the of the levels that exist. I'm going to see uh especially and scale out around those key areas to make sure I'm not getting clapped up, okay, in a trade. I'm gonna make sure that I have a tight risk management and you know, like using break-even feature on Weeble when I'm in my SPX trade, or using break-even, I'm over on my uh futures trading or whatever the case is, or you know, having a trailing stop. Now, if you don't know what any of the things are that I just mentioned to you and you're on these charts trading, I literally need to have a meeting with you. Okay. You've never heard of break even or setting a stop loss, take profit, and your stop loss and your take profit are both green, okay, and stuff like that. Like you don't know these things, like you you're finna get it. Okay, but, anyways, that's my disposition for ES. So I've marked these levels, I told you these levels. I would advise that you mark the same thing. Go back and listen, take notes, mark that off with the box tool, mark it off with a dotted line, a solid line, whatever the case is, and pay attention so that when you're in your trades, you know exactly what can happen at these points. Do you understand, my loves? Now, I don't want to hear boo squat didddly about oh, I got clapped up and oh, I lost money and oh this and all that. Because I'm gonna be real with you, if you got your levels and you have an understanding of the macro events that are happening, etc., you will be well prepared, like more than 85% of the traders out there. And that's where you level up your trading journey, yeah? Yeah. So the same thing that I did today, you could do it over on NASDAQ. You could go to the monthly, mark the the 50% of the monthly, look at where the previous month was, mark out any fair value gaps, then you could look at the weekly, and then you could look at the daily and just see where we're falling in regards to those different levels that you marked, and you could be adequately prepared, okay? So, with that being said, I'm gonna let you guys go. I have dropped enough content to really get you going in a good direction this week between my impact, my impact episode, my what was the other one? Was it technical analysis and just understanding the charts, you know, and and this one here specifically about the S P5. And yeah, if you take notes on these episodes here, you're going to be well prepared for anything that happens this week or this month. And with that being said, check me out on your socials on Instagram and threads. I'm Danny.calecia d-a-n i dot c A L E A S I A. Of course, it'll be in the description. Check me out with that same username over on TikTok. I'm also on X as Trader Bay, and I'm also on Threads. I'm on YouTube as well as day trading with Danny, and then I'm here with you. There's a plethora of ways to check me out. I am always doing something, hosting something today. We actually have an options class, me and the jest of all trades, um, that starts here in a couple of hours. But I'm all over the internet and social media, and then also be sure to check out my lo-fi day trading music that I create to bring a serene and peaceful atmosphere to your trading experience. Other than that, thank you so much for tuning in. Thank you for your love and support. And I want to see you be great, and I'm ready to see you be that millionaire and have that money, honey. Okay, so that's all for now, and I'll talk to you guys next Saturday and be blessed and also be protected, be safe. Much love.